Rio Tinto bets on copper

G’day.

Welcome to Point Blank.

Today’s brief:

• Rio Tinto bets on copper but faces pressure on its dual-listing structure.

• Clyde & Co’s entire cyber team is rumoured to have split for its own firm.

• ASIC tightens crypto rules with new crypto licenses.

As we begin to judge our friends’ Spotify Wrapped, here’s the latest when they inevitably try to switch the conversation to the important stuff 👇

 💼 Practice Points

• ASIC is tightening the reins on crypto. The regulator is requiring crypto exchanges and firms promoting investment in digital assets to hold a financial license. If you’re in the business of crypto trading or selling, time to get licensed.

• The Federal Government is turning up the heat on gender equality in the workplace, by introducing the Workplace Gender Equality Amendment (Setting Gender Equality Targets) Bill. If your organisation has 500+ employees, get ready to set and meet gender equality targets. Those companies will soon have to report measurable progress on gender equality.

• A new privacy bill has passed Parliament, marking it the first step in major reforms aimed at modernising Australian privacy law. The new measures include a new statutory tort allowing individuals to sue for serious invasions of privacy, a Children’s Online Privacy Code to protect kids, and Expanded enforcement powers for the OAIC. In response, WA is also finally stepping up its data game, passing its own privacy laws and setting up a mandatory data breach reporting scheme. The state will hire a chief data officer to lead and enforce new privacy principles across public sector agencies.

🏘️ Word on the Street 

• Word on the street is Clyde & Co is facing a cyber exodus, with their entire national cyber team planning to jump ship next year and start their own firm. Now the AFR is reporting that the Australian division may be seeking a merger lifeline.

• Former Dentons partner Guy Albeck is taking the firm to court, claiming they violated the Fair Work Act by taking adverse action against him after he made bullying complaints. Albeck has demanded Dentons' salary records. Albeck argues that the firm’s alleged misconduct derailed his path to equity partner, and he’s after compensation for loss and damages.

📢 Talking Points

• Five major Canadian news outlets have filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, claiming it scraped their content without permission to train its AI systems. While lawsuits against AI companies are piling up globally, OpenAI maintains its training relies on publicly available data and complies with fair use principles.

• With four generations working side by side in law firms, a recent pilot study found that the real post-COVID headache isn’t just RTO mandates—it’s the generational divide. According to the study, law firms are grappling with clashing values, work ethics, and mindsets, creating tension between the Baby Boomers and Gen Z.

• Clients are turning to law firms for more than just legal advice, with firms like MinterEllison seeing consultants make up nearly 10% of their fee earners. MinterEllison now leads the pack with the largest consulting offering, followed by Ashurst, while rivals Clayton Utz and KWM have their own consultancies in varying sizes. The shift comes after the Big Four consultants backed off from building full-service law divisions.

• The Australian Judicial Officers Association has raised concerns about the "ever-present danger" of politicisation in judicial appointments, given the government controls both the funding and selection of the next generation of judges. While the Association gives credit to the bench for being more diverse—moving away from the "white, middle-aged Christian male" stereotype—it’s pushing for more Indigenous judges to be appointed.

🏦 The Treasury

🤝 Deal Room

• Allens may be the 170th largest firm globally by revenue (according to The American Lawyer), but when it comes to M&A, they’re punching well above their weight. The firm snagged the 20^th spot on Bloomberg Law’s global M&A league tables, advising on some of this year’s biggest deals—including Blackstone’s US$16.1bn (A$24.9bn) acquisition of AirTrunk. In total, Allens contributed to 49 deals worth around $64.9bn (A$101.4bn). Not bad for a firm that’s not even in the top 100 by size... maybe size doesn’t matter after all?

• SG Fleet rejected PEP's $3.50 per share offer back in September but has come crawling back to accept the same offer now. So, what's changed? The SG Fleet share price has dived, falling from $3 to $2.50 per share in October, making PEP's deal much more palatable.

• The race for retirement village operator Aveo is on, with bids due next week and attention shifting to listed real estate trusts. Industry chatter points to Charter Hall and GPT Group as potential suitors, though insiders suggest Charter Hall is more likely to throw its hat in the ring. Brookfield, which bought Aveo in 2019 for $2bn (including debt), is running the auction through Morgan Stanley and Barrenjoey.

🏗 Sector Specific

Diggers

• Rio Tinto is setting its sights on a copper boom, aiming to ramp up copper volumes by 18% next year and 40% by 2030. Why? To reduce its reliance on Aussie iron ore. Its flagship iron ore division will provide around 55% of earnings in the midterm as the energy transition will ramp up demand for copper and aluminium.

• Speaking of Rio Tinto, the mining giant is under fire from activist hedge fund Palliser Capital, which is pushing the miner to ditch its dual London-ASX listing. Palliser claims the structure has cost shareholders $US50bn and calls for a single Australian holding company, citing BHP’s unification success.

• The lithium bear market isn’t packing up anytime soon. Bank of America warns that higher-cost producers aren't shutting down quickly enough, even as new supply floods the market, keeping the battery mineral in surplus until 2027.

• With up to $1.3 billion set to be spent by March 2025, Woodside is eyeing final investment decision readiness in Q1 next year. And it’s locked eyes on a new deal with Bechtel to drive forward the first phase of its massive Louisiana LNG project—a 16.5m tonne per annum export terminal.

Fin

• Citigroup could be out $41m after failing to offload a block of Goodman Group shares it underwrote for China’s sovereign wealth fund. Adding to the headache, the bank is still dealing with the fallout from firing a group of Hong Kong traders five years ago. Tough times for Citi on both sides of the globe.

• Sydney-based Splend, which leases vehicles to Uber drivers in Australia and London, has scored a $300M debt facility from Macquarie Group to expand its electric vehicle fleet. Nearly half of Splend's 7k cars are already electric, and CEO Chris King says the fleet will grow to 10k by the end of next year. Drivers are making the switch for economic reasons, saving up to $250 weekly by ditching petrol.

Tech

• Ex-Vocus chairman Vaughan Bowen is in hot water, accused of making around $25m through insider trading after selling shares in his own company. Bowen allegedly obtained the information over lunch with Vocus' general counsel. Mains with a side of inside intel?

• ACCC confirms what we already knew: Google’s grip on Australia’s search engine market is unshakable. Despite all the industry shifts, regulatory moves, and tech changes, Google still dominates with a hefty 94% market share.

Retail & Real Estate

• Tabcorp is trimming the fat, slashing 10% of its workforce as part of cost cuts. Since its AGM in October, the company has axed 200 roles, following CEO warnings that operating costs needed to be dialled back.

• The Business Council of Australia is taking a stand against the government’s new bargaining regime, which could open the door for unions to score a multi-employer deal to boost pay for McDonald's 100k workers. Maccas ditched enterprise bargaining back in 2019 and is still the largest employer sticking to the bare minimum—award wages.